Exactly What did the Monday Air Attacks on Syria Accomplish?

By Rob Janicki

Like any kid, I like watching "stuff" getting blown up and that's what we saw from news sources fed by the Obama administration since the Monday air campaign began to attack ISIS targets in Syria .  The problem is that we have no way of knowing whether these air attacks accomplished any measurable goal to degrade and destroy ISIS, the now stated strategy announced by President Obama after previously announcing he had no strategy to deal with ISIS.  Frankly, I have my doubts that much was accomplished and here is why.

Obama, two weeks prior to the Monday air attacks, announced to the world that he had no strategy to deal with ISIS, but he did announce that an air attack campaign would occur in the very near future.  Now, I don't want to be so provincial as to believe that ISIS is so stupid as not to notice such a pronouncement from President Obama and act on it in advance of the promised air attack campaign.

Obama,briefing ISIS on his plans to contain/destroy them,every step of the way&where not to be at any particular time pic.twitter.com/h9McfyexVa
— Elizabeth Nelson (@ElizabethNels0n) September 25, 2014

Quite the contrary.  ISIS is a very sophisticated operation with communications that would rival most countries.  Their understanding of the internet is top notch.  Surely, they read the New York Times to find out what the Obama administration is up to.  That said, I'm of the belief that they moved out of their ISIS headquarters in Raqqah, Syria and dispersed their command and control functions to multiple remote locations.  That would seen reasonable, even for the butchers and barbarians of ISIS.  These people aren't stupid.  Given a two week notice, it is not reasonable to assume that they would not sit on their hands waiting to be attacked.

The conclusion I have drawn is that most of the ISIS command and control functions have been removed from Raqqah and what we have seen in videos was a very nice choreographed piece of American propaganda released to give Americans the idea that President Obama is taking a leadership role to degrade and destroy ISIS, when in reality we have spent a lot of money more than likely destroying inconsequential targets that have been abandoned.

@GlennFo

It will take months of a comprehensive air campaign to really degrade and deter ISIS from engaging in expanding operations in Iraq.  At best the air campaign will change the nature of the conflict with ISIS as they adopt new means to expand their war on humanity in Syria and Iraq.  

Expect ISIS to revert to more traditional terrorist practices that we saw from al Qaeda during the war in Iraq.  Expect to see more lone wolf attacks to terrorize the population of the affected areas.  Expect to see more kidnappings of westerners and the resulting beheadings for the shock effect that ISIS continues to use as a psychological weapon to demoralize their enemies.

Do not expect to see a mercenary armed force raised and trained by the U.S. to seriously engage ISIS troops in the field.  Training of such a mercenary force will take 6 to 12  months and will only involve 5,000 troops.  Considering ISIS is reputed to have something like 30,000 troops, it would seem to be a mismatch even with heavy weapons for the mercenaries along with air support.

In conclusion, expect ISIS to morph their operations to adapt and meet the changing challenge they will face from the U.S. and its allies as the months, and possibly years, pass.